Showing posts with label Hezbollah. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hezbollah. Show all posts

Friday, October 7, 2011

How Do We Know Definitively That Israel’s Critics Are Wrong? Because of What They Say

Note: You might well want to read this in conjunction with my article, “It Isn’t Israel in Danger of Disappearing, It’s The People Who Think That Way.”

By Barry Rubin

People frequently ask me to respond to the latest article of You Know Who, Complete Ignoramus, or even the World’s Most Pompous Columnist, and various others of that ilk. I almost always respond that I’ve done that kind of thing already, or at this point one should only ignore such people, or it is better to spend one’s time writing constructively to explain reality than to waste time combatting endlessly recycled lies and nonsense.

But then I realized that there was a totally different and far more revealing way of approaching this issue, a way of using this kind of criticism to show precisely how wrong it is.

The basic line of criticism being used is that Israel doesn’t know what’s good for itself. Here it has this wonderful opportunity to have an independent Palestinian state next door, thus the conflict would be over, Arabs and Muslims would all accept Israel, and there would be no more war, no more bloodshed. The West would also love Israel.

All of the country’s problems would be over! Why are Israelis so blind to elect such a government when they should elect one that is willing to go back to the 1967 borders, accept a Palestinian state with minimal conditions, and stop making any demands of its own? Don’t worry, be happy!

Or to put it into song, specifically Ed McCurdy’s “Last Night I had the Strangest Dream”:


“I dreamed I saw a mighty room…

And the paper they were signing said

They’d never fight again….



“And the people in the streets below

Were dancing ’round and ’round

While swords and guns and uniforms

Were scattered on the ground.”

Well, it is a wonderful dream, may it come true speedily in our times.

But the Middle East version might go like this:

And while people in the streets below

Were dancing ’round and ’round,

The other side took up swords and guns and

Put the well-intentioned fools in the ground.

Or, to put it another way, where you have governments like those in Iran, Syria, the Gaza Strip (Hamas), Lebanon (dominated by Hizballah), and movements like the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists who daily preach death to Israel and kill the Jews, the McCurdy vision should curdle your blood.

But you know that already. Here’s what’s new: What should You Know Who, the Complete Ignoramus, the World’s Most Pompous Columnist, and various others of that ilk be writing? In other words, if you want to challenge Israel’s stance how should you do it?

The answer is by taking the exact opposite position. Here it is:

Acknowledgment of experience:

Israel and Israelis have good reasons for being mistrustful based on what they have lived through during recent decades.

1. Acknowledgement of responsibility:

We know that the West has let Israel down by naiveté toward its enemies, failure to provide sufficient support, excess and unfair criticism.

2. Awareness of Israel’s legitimate needs

We understand that Israel needs secure borders, strong security guarantees, limits on Palestine’s armaments, an iron-clad commitment that a peace agreement ends the conflict, and resettlement of Palestinian refugees in Palestine.

3. Understanding of the dangers of a Palestine state and what’s needed to produce a stable, lasting peace

We know that a Palestinian state could continue cross-border attacks, incitement to murder Israelis, and a military build-up that would threaten Israel, viewing the new situation as not one of peace but of a second stage in the battle. We must take steps to stop this from destroying a peace agreement.

4. The regional scene

We understand that we failed to live up to our commitment to Israel in the 2006 Lebanon ceasefire agreement—letting Hizballah return to the south—and that the current regional scene is very dangerous. Consequently, we understand that absolute clarity is needed on revolutionary Islamism’s threat, combatting Iranian influence, helping moderate democratic movements but doing all possible against radical ones (even if camouflaged as moderate), comprehending Turkey’s transformation by an Islamist regime and opposing it. We will work with Israel and other moderate forces against the revolutionaries and those who want to wipe it off the map.

5. The conclusion

Therefore on the basis of this absolute clarity of the threat to Israel and of our need to fight against it—especially since these are also anti-Western forces–we are working for a just, stable, and lasting two-state solution. Let us together devise methods of making this work.

Now, that would be a lot more persuasive. Or to put it graphically:

Current critique of Israel’s policies:

You will now jump off the cliff for your own good! Nothing can possibly go wrong! There is no yawning chasm, no precipitous drop, no pointy rocks below! Your claiming otherwise is purely a mirage, if not a deliberate lie. How dare you not jump when we tell you to do so! You’re so stupid! Maybe you really are evil!

Persuasive critique of Israel’s policies:

Here is the finest possible bungee cord. I have done comparison shopping and this is the best there is. Let’s run some tests and set up the jump as close as possible to your specifications. We will stake our lives on making sure your enemies don’t cut the rope. We will search them thoroughly to make sure they don’t have knives and can’t come close enough to fiddle with the equipment. Oh, and we will make sure they jump also from their cliff and not just stand by while you take all the risks.

Nothing can be more conducive to knowing you are right than seeing how bad are your foes’ arguments. It’s one thing for people to disagree with you and even criticize you, but quite another when you examine their arguments closely and find that they are simply out of touch with reality, biased, and illogical as well. We really read what they say and write very carefully; they ignore what we say and write (except occasionally in the hope of finding something misworded that can be turned into a “gotcha!” claim).

At the same time, though, I’m not going to risk my life, the lives of my family, country, and people on the demonstrable ignorance of those who give advice so bad that it doesn’t even pretend to take into account those risks.

And it is the very nature of these criticisms—naïvely based on wishful thinking and ignoring threats rather than based on a since and sophisticated understanding and response to them—that is the most persuasive proof of all that they are wrong.


Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His book, Israel: An Introduction, will be published by Yale University Press in January. Latest books include The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is at http://www.gloria-center.org and of his blog, Rubin Reports, http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com
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Wednesday, August 3, 2011

As Hizballah Prepares for War, The Ceasefire Is Going “Very Well”

By Barry Rubin

Israel is constantly urged to put its trust in the international community, an idea that hasn’t worked out too well in the past. Now the UN special envoy for Lebanon has given another reason why Israel shouldn’t take risks and make concessions based on the hope of support from international guarantees.

While he did about the best he could given his situation, Michael Williams, the British diplomat working for the UN in this job, said the UN-sponsored ceasefire that ended the Hizballah-Israel war in 2006 is holding up “very well.”

Technically, this is quite true. There hasn’t been a new war or cross-border attacks. But that’s merely because Hizballah has been too busy taking over Lebanon successfully and preparing for the next war. As Williams admits, arms have flowed to Hizballah (from Syria, though he doesn’t say that). Williams only says that Lebanon’s borders are “porous,” a wonderful diplomatic euphemism for state-sponsored arms smuggling. The Gaza Strip’s borders with Egypt, by the way, have become porous in the same way.

Hizballah has also moved back into southern Lebanon–something the UN was supposed to prevent–and rebuilt its system of tunnels and military strongpoints. In five years, the UN force has never interfered with these Hizballah activities–not once.

Imagine if you will how UN and international guarantees would work with a Palestinian state. Would the General Assembly vote to condemn Palestine for breaking its commitments? Would any foreign “peacekeeping” force that was part of a peace treaty ever act forcefully to stop weapons or terrorists from crossing the border into Palestine? Would they fight to stop terrorists from crossing the border from Palestine into Israel?

Of course not. Yet that point is not taken into account by any Western government, academic study, or mass media coverage. But it is taken into account by Israel. Otherwise we will read about the UN special envoy for Israel-Palestine peacekeeping talking about how well things are going as incitement, terrorism, and violations of the agreement take place daily.

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, and Middle East editor and a featured columnist at PajamasMedia http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is http://www.gloria-center.org. His articles published originally in places other than PajamasMedia can be found at http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com 
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Friday, July 22, 2011

Take Lebanon for Example (Hizballah Did) But The West Doesn't Get It

By Barry Rubin

…that truly embodies the spirit of the era. And in this era the mainstream spirit is to ignore reality and construct a fantasyland. Case in point (as Rod Serling used to say on The Twilight Zone), an editorial entitled “The Long Pursuit of Justice in Lebanon.” The editorial deals with the fact that four Hizballah figures, one of them very senior, have been indicted by the international tribunal for their involvement in assassinating former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

The editorial is six paragraphs long. It tells us that Hizballah is:

“The militant Shiite movement whose cynical mix of politics and armed intimidation helped bring Prime Minister Najib Mikati to power.”

and then it says that while Hizballah vows the men will never be arrested:

“Mr. Mikati has a legal duty to arrest them. He claims to be politically independent of Hezbollah. This is the perfect chance to prove it.”

A legal duty! Wow! Do I make the New York Times editorial board happy or do I ensure that Hizballah doesn’t kill me? Tough choice.

“Carrying out these arrests will require extraordinary political courage. Failure to do so would cost Lebanon dearly, threatening its civil peace and leaving no doubt that the real powers in Lebanon are Hezbollah and its backers in Syria.”

Now this is the kind of professorial bull-session school approach that has brought us the current mess in U.S. foreign policy.

We know that Hizballah–a fact never mentioned in the editorial!–holds 60 percent of the cabinet ministries. And we know that Mikati is not only the Hizballah candidate but also the candidate of Syria–whose own involvement in the killing is a fact never mentioned in the editorial. And Lebanon is even on the UN Secuity Council where it voted against the sanctions on Iran. There might be a state in the Middle East treated internationally as a pariah but it’s not Lebanon and it isn’t going to be Lebanon.

And we know that there is not the slightest chance of Mikati doing anything, just as we knew that Iran wouldn’t give up its drive for nuclear weapons, that the Palestinian Authority won’t make peace with Israel, that Hamas won’t become more moderate, that Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad won’t make reforms or break fromIran, and that the Muslim Brotherhood will never accept a stable non-Islamist democracy in Egypt.

But we have to pretend. Pretend so the U.S. government need take no action; pretend so that the nature and composition of the enemy of Western democracy will not be identified; pretend that the radicals aren’t advancing and that the U.S. government is not countering them. Pretend that the U.S. shouldn’t be fully supporting Israel which is threatened by terrorist-using movements and regimes.

After all, why should Mikati risk anything when he knows that the West won’t help him and that he cannot depend on serious U.S. backing? Why should Mikati do anything since he is the virtual agent (or very close to being one) of Iran, Syria, and Hizballah.

Even if a fact-checker approved the wording of the editorial it is meaningless and useless.

For several years, the U.S. government, under Obama and his predecessor, had the chance to help truly moderate forces in Lebanon. They didn’t do so. And thus the moderates fell and were replaced in free elections–yes, revolutionary Islamists and dedicated anti-Americans can easily win elections–by the radicals who are clients of radical states. Then, too, the United States didn’t do anything, despite the pleadings of Saudi Arabia and others.

Nor does the editorial mention how the United States, the West, and the “international community” (that all want Israel to
risk its existence on their “security guarantees”) broke the 2006 promises to curb Hizballah. As part of the ceasefire in the Israel-Hizballah war (it’s now the fifth anniversary so the Times would have a great news peg for doing so), Israel was promised that Hizballah would be kept from returning to southern Lebanon and refortifying it (promise broken); would help block arms’ imports for Hizballah (promises broken); and would help disarm Hizballah (promise broken).

Now it is too late. But in mid-2011 is the Western discussion going to continue pretending that Lebanon is some kind of open system, that revolutionary Islamists aren’t in control, that the country hasn’t become a near-satellite of Tehran and Damascus? Is this the same basic pattern we are going to see in Egypt and perhaps Tunisia?

And these are the West’s “best and brightest?” The smug, smart people who know more than anyone else? Disgraceful.


Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, and Middle East editor and a featured columnist at PajamasMedia http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is http://www.gloria-center.org. His articles published originally in places other than PajamasMedia can be found at http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com 
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