Recession Signs of The Day! Factory Orders Down-Layoffs Way Up

In a post yesterday we provided a list of all the economic signs that we've begun the second fall of a double dip recession. More bad news today factory orders are down.

New orders received by factories fell in June, pulled down by weak demand for transportation equipment, government data showed on Wednesday.

The Commerce Department said orders for manufactured goods fell 0.8 percent after a revised 0.6 percent increase in May. Economists had forecast a 0.7 percent decline after a previously reported 0.8 percent rise.

Manufacturing has shouldered the economy's recovery and the slowdown in factory orders in June further diminished prospects of a strong and swift step-up in growth after a very weak first half.

There was also some bad news in employment, layoffs are way up:

According to data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas today, job cut announcements in July totaled 66,414, up 60% from June and 59% higher than July 2010. July’s job cut announcement figure is the highest since March 2010 when 67,611 job cuts were announced.

“July marks the third consecutive increase we have seen in monthly job-cut announcements, which certainly seems to provide additional evidence that the recovery has stalled. What may be most worrisome about the July surge is that the heaviest layoffs occurred in industries that, until now, have enjoyed relatively low job-cut levels, including pharmaceuticals, computer and retail,” said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Tomorrow morning the unemployment numbers for July are to be released. The June percentage of 9.2% was a tenth of a point higher than May. My prediction for July? Well I would trust the guy below holding the sign.

New Poll: Almost Two-Thirds of Voters Want a Balanced Budget Amendment

Since Congress won’t fix the problem, Americans want a Constitutional amendment to protect them from Congress. A new Sachs/Mason-Dixon Poll released by the Daily Caller this afternoon finds that almost two out of every three Americans (65%) support a constitutional amendment that would require the budget to be balanced every year.

“Americans are concerned about our nation’s deepening deficit and as a result, an overwhelming number support a balanced budget amendment,” said Alia Faraj-Johnson, Partner and Executive Vice President of Ron Sachs Communications. “Candidates from both parties would be wise to support the measure, which will help keep Congress’ spending in check and ensure our government is tightening its belt, like many American families.”

Support for the Amendment is wide-spread; Republicans (81%) and Independents (68%) support an amendment.  As expected Democrats are more reluctant to give up their “political crack,” but still slightly more 45% support the amendment than oppose it.

A balanced budget amendment would put the federal government on the same footing as most of the state budgets. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures 45 of the 50 states have a constitutional provision requiring that the budget be balanced each year.  Four states are required to have a balanced budget by statute only (and we know how easy it is to amend statutes). One state, Vermont has neither.  

The survey also reports that 46% of Americans would be more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who supports a balanced budget amendment while 21% indicated they would be less likely to vote for such a candidate.

Just as with the first question there are vast differences depending on party affiliation. Only 21% of Democrats would be more likely to support such a candidate (versus 37% who would be less likely), 64% of Republicans would be more likely (versus 7% less likely) and 51% of Independents (versus 19%).

Two things could be gleaned from these results. First the American people are serious they want the country to find a way to dig out of the budgetary hole we created by over spending. The second point is for potential GOP presidential candidates. Unless a particular candidate is hoping to get most of its votes from the opposition party, there is no downside to supporting a balanced budget amendment, Republicans and Independents both will be more likely to vote for a candidate supporting the amendment.

American's simply do not trust politicians to fix the problem themselves, only through an amendment to the Constitution will our leaders be forced to deal with the hard choices that need to be made.