Obama Approval Hits New LOW In Both Rasmussen and Gallup

It seems as if President Obama's bus tour and divisive political message isn't doing him much good, in the latest Rasmussen three day rolling approval poll, his approval index hit a new low -26.  Gallup has Obama's approval sinking to a new low 38%.

The Rasmussen approval index compares voters who strongly believe Obama is doing a good job to those who strongly disapprove of the job he is doing. Those who have strong opinions of a President are more likely to work for or against his reelection. Today's -26 number is the lowest that Obama has seen since his inauguration.

Note: Double click on each chart to see it larger and more clearly) 
The chart above takes a look at Obama's approval index since July 25th (his last prime time speech about the budget deal) through today.  As you can see the budget deal at the beginning of July gave the President a bump. Since then, the economic news has been awful and Obama has been on the road trashing the GOP and the Tea Party.

The strongly approve and strongly disapprove numbers show a similar trend. The 19% strongly approve percentage is also an all time low achieved just once before (8/16).

 The overall approval/disapproval percentages also tell a sad tale for Obama:

Rasmussen released other numbers that are a black cloud floating over Obama's reelection campaign, only 28% of voters trust him on the economy (25% of independents).  With the economy being the most important issue in the upcoming election, this may be an indicator that Obama's approval numbers are likely to go down.

Gallup, whose numbers tend to be a bit more favorable to Democratic candidates also shows the President at an all time low. His approval has fallen to only 38%.

There is still plenty of time between now and election day 2012.  George HW Bush  had a Gallup approval rating of 74% at this point in his Presidency.

Unfortunately for Obama and for the country, it takes longer for the massive US economy to right itself than it does to sink. And our President still has no plan to fix the economy.  Unless he does and unless it works awful fast, we will have a new president beginning January 2013.

Liberal Pollster Declares Obama's Re-election in Trouble

Liberal polling firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) is sounding the alarm, Barack Obama is in trouble. 

“There’s a very good chance Barack Obama would lose if he had to stand for reelection today,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This is his worst poll standing in a long time and he really needs the economy to start turning around.”

Overall Obama's by a 48%-46% margin voters disapprove of the President's performance, but that is probably the best set of numbers in the study.  More Democrats are unhappy with the President's performance (16%), than Republicans who approve of him (10%).  I guess that means 10% of GOP voters have had no access to any media during the past two and a half years. The number that should be be most disturbing to the Obama-fans is the independent voters who disapprove of him by a margin of 49%-44%.

Now put those numbers in the context of this Jim Geraghty report which analyzed PPP and found some conflicts of interest, lack of transparency and Democratic-skewed methodology. In other words things could be even worse than the Daily Kos contractor, PPP is reporting.

PPP is also reporting that Mitt Romney has pulled into a tie with the President at 45%.

He leads the President by 9 points with independents at 46-37. And he earns more crossover support, getting 13% of the Democratic vote while only 8% of Republicans are behind Obama.

The other candidates are far behind Romney, but that is probably due to a lack of recognition rather than an understanding/disagreement with their policy.

Gallup is also showing a drop in support for Obama, the three-day rolling average of presidential approval reflected that Obama's approval dropped to 42%, to put that into perspective one month ago that approval rating was at 49%.

Since it is a three day average, and the first day a drop has been detected,  tomorrow's Gallup numbers for Obama may be even worse.

Rasmussen's three-day average reflects a similar drop with the President's disapproval at 54% vs 44% approval.

What is forcing Obama's numbers down? That could be best answered with the now-famous phrase, "Its the economy stupid!" and Americans are not very optimistic about the future:

Twenty-one percent (21%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, July 17. This matches the lowest level measured of Obama’s presidency and is also the lowest finding in nearly three months of weekly tracking.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters say the country is heading down the wrong track, the highest level of pessimism measured since mid-April. This finding has ranged from 57% to 72% since January 2009.

Certainly these numbers show that Americans are growing frustrated with Barack Obama's brand of change and if the election were held today he would be in severe trouble.  But the election won't be held today or for another year and a half, a lot can happen in that time period.

Rasmussen Reports...Obama's Approval "Falls Off The Cliff"

Between Debbie Wassserman Schultz' claim that the economy was turning around, and Obama's joke about shovel ready projects, if the President, and the progressive Democratic party leadership has proven anything over the past few days, it is that they are out of touch with the American people. And the American people are beginning to understand the progressive's distance from the voters.

There is a wealth of polling data coming from Rasmussen over the past few days, that signal problems for the President.  For example the chart below reflects the President's overall approval/disapproval ratings since his Bin Laden announcement.

You will notice that right after the announcement the President's approval (Blue line) took a bump up, but that advantage was quickly dissipated. For the next month, the approval/disapproval numbers remained close until the bad economic data and comments such as the ones described above began to take their toll. Today there is a nine percent spread between those who disapprove (54%) and those who approve (45%) of the President's performance.

What should be particularly troubling for the President is that 62% of independent voters disapprove of Obama's performance (37% approve).  Independents are likely to be the difference in the 2012.


Obama's approval index shows the same pattern. Approval index is the difference between those who strongly approve and strongly disapprove of the president's performance. This number is important because a voter with a strong opinion regarding a president's performance is more likely to work for or against the reelection of that president. Obama's approval index was at a -11 at the time if the Bin Laden mission.


It remained approximately in the same place until late last week when it fell to -19.  Just like the overall approval numbers, the independent voters show a strong negative feeling about Obama's performance with a -29 approval index.

Approval numbers are not the only statistic indicating voter frustration with President Obama.

• Almost two thirds of voters (65%) feel the country is going in the wrong direction

• 44% of voters blame the lousy economy on Obama (vs 49% who blame Bush). Last month it was only 39% blaming Obama, and 54% Bush.  Just as important is the fact that more independents (45%) blame Obama than Bush (44%).

• Only 28% of all voters and 23% of independents trust Obama on the economy more than they trust themselves.

• The President is seen as very liberal. 42% of voters see Obama as very liberal, 24% as somewhat liberal. Only 25% see him as a moderate. Independents generally agree, 39% see him as very liberal, 28% see him as somewhat liberal and only 23% see him as a moderate.  As US voters tend to be center-right, those very liberal numbers should be a concern for Obama's reelection team.

Putting it all together it is all bad news for the President. The only  good news (for him) is that there is a very long time between now and November 2012.  Over the next 17 months the Republicans need to keep pounding on the Presidential poor economic performance to ensure that America can elect a new president and turn itself around.

New Poll Numbers Show Obama's Post-Bin Laden Bump is Over

Sorry Mr. President, the party is over. Less than two weeks after Osama Bin Laden was killed by a squad of hero Navy Seals, the bump in Obama's ratings has disappeared, in fact the latest Rasmussen poll shows that some of his numbers are worse than before.

For example the chart below reflects the President's approval index from the day the Bin Laden news was released though today.  Approval index represents the people who strongly approve of the President's performance minus the people who strongly disapprove. So it is an indication of the people most passionate about President's performance, these are the people who are most likely to work toward/against Re-election of the present POTUS.

Keep in mind, the Bin Laden news was released well after the May 2nd sample was taken and released. Rasmussen numbers reflect three days sampling ending with the day prior to the numbers being released so, for example for the May 4th numbers only one third of the sample was questioned after the Bin Laden death was reported.  It was not until May 6th that the entire sample had the possibility of being aware of the death of Bin Laden.

On May 2nd, the day Bin Laden was killed the President's approval index was at a -12. From there it generally rose through May 7th, and started falling through today's report which shows him back at a -12.


Overall approval and disapproval numbers show the same pattern.

Prior to Bin Laden's trip to hell, Rasmussen reported that President's overall approval/disapproval numbers were both at 49%, today his disapproval stands at 52% and approval stands at 48%

What should be even more troubling to the President should be the fact that his numbers among independents are not promising (the Oth column in the chart below)

Among independents, the president's approval index is at a minus 22, and almost 70% of independents believe that the country is on the wrong track.

Over-all President Obama received (and frankly deserved) an approval bounce based on the Navy Seals heroic action eliminating Osama Bin Laden as a threat to this country.  As the saying all good things must pass, but nobody expected things to pass so quickly.

But this is a nation which is on the precipice of a financial abyss. As soon as the joy that Bin Laden is no longer a threat passed, the weekly new unemployment claims figure shot up and the monthly unemployment percentage rose back to 9%.  These number shocked America out of its post Bin Laden euphoria and back into the reality that Barack Obama has mis-handled the economy.  Look for his numbers to continue to fall as long as the economy continues to falter.