Things Be Rotten in the State of Egypt

By Barry Rubin

There’s a new political timeline for Egypt. Apparently horrified by disorder and radicalization, the military junta has decided to slow things down.

Its proposal is for parliamentary elections on November 28, with the resulting parliament choosing a committee to write a new constitution by April 2012. That group will have a year to produce the new document and only then — after April 2013 — will there be presidential elections. Bottom line: The generals will retain executive power for the next 18 months.

What’s likely to happen in the elections? My estimate is that the Muslim Brotherhood will be the single largest party, with 30 to 40 percent of the seats.

In contrast to the united Islamists, there are more than a dozen moderate parties. The three main ones are the left-oriented Justice Party, the opportunistic Wafd Party, and the Free Egyptians’ Party, the closest thing to an anti-Islamist moderate force.

These three will each get roughly 15 percent of the seats and will consequently be much weaker than the Brotherhood and will perhaps be willing to make deals with it in order to get a share of power. Most of the remaining seats are likely to go to a party favoring the old regime. That party might do better than expected as bad conditions make some Egyptians nostalgic for the Mubarak days.

If so, the Brotherhood won’t be taking power in Egypt soon, but there will be a radical (leftist, nationalist, Islamist) majority in parliament. As different as these ideologies are, they’re united by their opposition to America, the West, and Israel and their support for radical groups abroad — especially Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip.

In addition, the Brotherhood will play a central role in writing the new constitution, which will enshrine Sharia as the main but not sole source of legislation.

There are many other ways in which the Brotherhood can lay the foundation for its future rule. For example, it wants to bring the two top Islamic offices — mufti and Al-Azhar University head — under parliamentary control. This will let it control Islam in Egypt, even choosing mosque preachers and religious teachers throughout the country.

Yet the Brotherhood doesn’t seem eager to take power quickly. The group continues to have a strong cautious — though that’s not the same thing as moderate — streak, having suffered bloody repression in past decades. To move too fast might upset the military and unite the group’s opponents, whose divisions will make them easier to conquer.

There’s another reason for the Brotherhood’s hesitation. Egypt’s economic situation is terrible and likely to get far worse. The Brotherhood doesn’t want to be blamed when the crash comes, preferring to go tsk-tsk at the alleged evils of capitalism, the Mubarak era, foreign aid, and the International Monetary Fund. It could then approach a frightened public with the comforting assertion that Islam is the answer to all of Egypt’s woes.

Is a war with Israel possible? If the military holds onto executive power into the second half of 2013, that’s far less likely. The worst-case scenario is if Hamas deliberately starts a fracas with Israel — firing rockets and mortars by the score and launching cross-border raids — to provoke retaliation.

The Brotherhood, radical nationalists, Salafi super-extremist Islamist groups, and leftists would then demand that Egypt go to the aid of the brothers next door. At a minimum, this would mean letting volunteers, money, and weapons flow into the Gaza Strip. At a maximum, it could bring direct involvement of an Egyptian leadership too frightened and stirred up to resist. Probably, though, until Egypt has a president, that outcome is not so likely.

Meanwhile, what is far more probable is that the domestic situation will deteriorate further, with the first and greatest victims being Egyptian Christians. The number of Coptic Christians in Egypt is greater than the entire population of Israel, Jordan, or Lebanon. A recent report by an Egyptian human rights group claims that almost 100,000 Christians have left the country since January.

With almost daily attacks on Christians and the destruction of churches by mobs, the violence is escalating. Neither government officials nor the army will help the Christians, who can also not depend on any foreign protection.

Except for the military — and it often appeases anti-Christian, Islamist, and anti-foreign forces — there is absolutely nothing to prevent the further radicalization of the situation in Egypt, which also includes rampant crime and skyrocketing inflation. The dream of a moderate, stable, and democratic Egypt is quickly becoming a nightmare.


Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His book, Israel: An Introduction, will be published by Yale University Press in January. Latest books include The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is at http://www.gloria-center.org and of his blog, Rubin Reports, http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com

LAWSUIT! Sheila Jackson Lee Tormented Disabled Ex-Aide

Its been well known the Sheila Jackson Lee's brain lights are set to dim.  Some would say that she rivals Barbara Boxer for the title of dumbest person in Congress. Jackson Lee who once wasted the time of Congress with a piece of legislation to honor the late Michael Jackson (A Tribute to an American Legend and Musical Icon) that made the accused child molester seem like Mother Teresa. Then there was the time she stood on the floor of the house  discussing how North and South Vietnam are living peacefully side by side, even though there hasn't been a North and South Vietnam since Gerald Ford was President.

Adding to her resume of incompetence, the IQ-challenged lawmaker is being sued by one of her former staffers for being particularly nasty about her disability.

This isn't the first time Jackson-Lee has been accused of being a tyrant. Back in March the Daily Caller examined Jackson-Lee's management skills, and it wasn't pretty." The report said  the Texas progressive may be the most demanding insensitive boss on Capitol Hill, a building  known for nasty bosses.

Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee of Texas also hands out nicknames to the people who work for her. The Houston Democrat addressed one of her employees as “you stupid motherfucker.” And not just once, but “constantly,” recalls the staffer, “like, all the time.”

Another Jackson Lee aide recounts the time her parents came to Washington to visit: “They were really excited to come to the congressional office. They’re small town people, so for them it was a huge deal. They were actually sitting in the main lobby waiting area….[Jackson Lee] came out screaming at me over a scheduling change. Called me a ’stupid idiot. Don’t be a moron, you foolish girl’ and actually did this in front of my parents, of all things.”

Today the Washington Times is reporting that the IQ-challenged lawmaker was particularly cruel to one of her disabled employees.

.....a former top aide to the Texas Democrat, said the lawmaker's public support for the disabled was nowhere to be found in her own congressional office when it came to the aide's vision impairment. Mona Floyd, who served as the congresswoman's legislative director, has monocular vision. She said she was told by Mrs. Jackson Lee in a private conversation within weeks of the hearing, "I don't care anything about your disability."

Another time, when Ms. Floyd, a lawyer, brought up her disability, she said another staffer told her the congresswoman had said, "I don't give a damn about her disability."

The accusations were outlined in a sharply-worded lawsuit filed recently in federal court in Washington, which seeks unspecified pay and compensatory and punitive damages. According to the complaint, Ms. Floyd, who did not return phone messages this week for comment, received reasonable accommodations for her vision disability when she went to work for the congresswoman in August 2007. But Ms. Floyd said in the court papers, the congresswoman became dismissive when she returned in February 2010 to become Mrs. Jackson Lee's legislative director.

....According to the court papers, Ms. Floyd started working in the office as a fellow through the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation, which told Mrs. Jackson Lee's office that Ms. Floyd was vision impaired and needed special computer software and accommodations. When the software didn't work, Ms. Floyd instead was given rest breaks and extra time to finish tasks, the lawsuit said.

Under those circumstances, Ms. Floyd said she did well and was hired on permanently as the congresswoman's director of health policy and senior legislative assistant, the suit said. In that role, Ms. Floyd said, she personally told the congresswoman about her vision problems and helped draft legislation addressing deficiencies in the educational system for people with vision disabilities.

Ms Floyd left Jackson-Lee's office in December 2007 and returned in early 2010.

Despite assurances the office again would make accommodations for her disability, Ms. Floyd said that never happened and she found herself working from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m. without any rest breaks, which she called "physically impossible" given her vision problems.

In the lawsuit, Ms. Floyd said that on April 26, 2010, Mrs. Jackson Lee gave her numerous reading-related assignments before adding that it shouldn't take 10 years to finish. She left the office in September.

"The representative regularly made these types of derogatory comments about the speed of Ms. Floyd's work, which the representative knew was a result of her vision impairment," the lawsuit said.

Here's the sick part, publicly Sheila Jackson Lee advocates for the disabled and used Ms. Floyd as an example.

In a hearing on the Americans With Disabilities Act, she noted there were 3 million people in Texas with disabilities and she was working on legislation to help visually impaired students at elementary, secondary and post-secondary levels.

"It addresses major concerns of visually impaired Americans that were brought to our attention through meetings with organizations representing those visually impaired," Mrs. Jackson Lee said.

She also complimented her staff and singled out Ms. Floyd.

A former boss of mine used to describe her philosophy on interpersonal relationships this way, "I can handle people who are nasty, and I can handle people who are stupid, but I just can't handle people who are stupid and nasty." Well, looking at the latest revelations about Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee, my boss would have hated the progressive Representative from Texas. Sadly her constituency keeps on reelecting, this embarrassment to the Congress and indeed the entire country.